Let the NASCAR championship playoffs media blitz begin....But first let's get real about it all

  So will this title chase come down to Jimmie 'Four-Time' Johnson (L) versus Kevin Harvick (R), the tour's most consistent racer this season? Or will Richmond winner Denny Hamlin live up to his pre-season billing as the man to beat? And what about Kyle Busch? (Photos: Getty Images for NASCAR)  

   By Mike Mulhern
   mikemulhern.net

   RICHMOND, Va.
   And now it's on to New York City....for a major NASCAR media blitz this week, to try to pump up national interest in stock car racing's championship chase.
   As if these 12 contenders don't have enough pressure on their shoulders as the Sprint Cup playoffs loom, with an opening series of races at Loudon, N.H., Dover, Del., and Kansas City...
   But first, okay, let's get real about this season's NASCAR championship:
   Yes, there are 12 men all essentially re-zeroed in points for the final 10 races. And Jeff Burton, one of those, says "Ten races is an eternity."
   Indeed.
   Heck, a season that starts in early February and runs through Thanksgiving is an eternity.
   But in the hours after Saturday night's Richmond 400, the finale to the regular season, it was clear – even voiced by some of these drivers – that these playoffs won't be a 12-man free-for-all.
   Yes, Jimmie Johnson is vulnerable. He isn't coming into this chase as the dominant player. (Of course he rarely goes into the chase on a roll....). Clint Bowyer: "Superman has not lost his cape, but it's shorter than it was in years past."
   However it's pretty clear that there are four men as solid favorites for the title, and two or three more with a decent shot at it.
   In the first group, Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.
  
  

    Denny Hamlin (11) takes the low line across the finish line, in beating teammate Kyle Busch (18), while fellow title contender Matt Kenseth (purple car) barely hangs on to the lead lap (Photo: Getty Images for NASCAR)
  

   In the second group, Carl Edwards and Jeff Burton.
   The rest, well, they're questionable.
   And, yes, that includes Jeff Gordon.
   Consider: Gordon hasn't won a tour event since the spring of 2009.
   Consider: Edwards and Burton are both winless since late 2008.
   Consider: Clint Bowyer hasn't won since the spring of 2008, and he's only won two tour events in his career.
   Consider: Matt Kenseth hasn't won since very early 2009, and he's been a non-factor in most races this season.
   Consider: Tony Stewart did win Atlanta a week ago, but that was his first victory since early last fall, and most of this season he and teammate Ryan Newman have  been pretty much out of the game on any given Saturday or Sunday.
   Consider: Greg Biffle finally broke a long losing streak with a Pocono win a few weeks ago, but after Saturday's 400 he conceded he really doesn't feel very confident about the playoffs.
   Consider: Kurt Busch did win Atlanta and Charlotte in the spring, but the past several weeks he's been way off his game, and Saturday he too all but took himself out of serious title contention.
   This is the deal: If a man and his team haven't shown much in the year's first seven months, it's highly unlikely they'll suddenly explode into championship contenders.
   On the other side of that coin, even if a man and his team have kicked butt during the first 26 races – like Gordon did a few years back, and then like Kyle Busch did too, and like Stewart did last year, that doesn't seems to give them much of an edge in the chase.
   And then too, some teams expend so much energy just making the chase, that when the playoffs begin, well, they simply flop.
   That of course is one problem with the whole 'chase' concept – that making the chase has become the thing. Not winning races necessarily. Not even winning the championship. Just making the chase. So some teams simply 'stroke' their way through the first 26 races, in order to make the chase...and then they can 'stroke' through the playoffs too.
   Head games? Dale Earnhardt used to be famous for those in his title runs.
   But Johnson, Mr. Four-time, says the playoff pressure is pretty darned mental as it is, without trying to play head games with rivals.
   "Last year we entered the chase without the momentum I wanted," Johnson says. "I remember being a part of the celebration here, and I was in a terrible mood, because we ran so bad. 
    "But I know from experience the chase is it's own environment.  When we wake up Monday morning....there's a pit that develops in your stomach and doesn't go away.  It's the championship pit, and it's there.
    "We are all going to wake up with it, and deal with it...and some guys handle it better than others."
   Up till now Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have done the best job.
   For example, Kyle Busch changed crew chiefs after a series of problems in the 2008 chase, even before that season was over.
   What does all this mean: that this year's NASCAR Sprint Cup champion will almost surely be either Johnson, Harvick, Hamlin or Kyle Busch.
   Too, there will be some wild cards in these next 10 races – likely Juan Pablo Montoya and Jamie McMurray, two who have shown championship potential all seasons, though saddled with too many DNFs.

   For team owner Richard Childress, with all three teams in the chase, after missing the playoffs last year, the turnaround this season has been striking. Childress did win six NASCAR titles with the late Dale Earnhardt, and they were consistent contenders. But Childress' last Cup trophy was back in 1994.
   "We definitely have got our work cut out for us to win the championship," Childress says. "Our goal is to be a contender -- if you are a contender, you have a chance to win."
   Bowyer is one of Childress' men: Bowyer concedes he's going into the playoff "as the underdog, under the radar.....the good thing is we do have a lot of momentum. If we can continue that, I think we can create some excitement."
    But...."a win is exactly what this team is missing right now."
   Harvick, his teammate and the regular season 'champion,' for which he gets exactly nothing, looks to be the favorite....if he can avoid the playoff collapse that tripped up Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart the last two years: "It's been a phenomenal year, and hopefully the last 10 weeks can be the same way," Harvick says. "We have done it for 26 weeks -- we have beat them. Hopefully we can beat them for 10 more."
   Burton, at 43, the old man in the chase, is the third Childress driver, and he says "my approach is a little different, because most of these guys will have more opportunities than I have. My approach is I've been waiting my whole life to be in this position. I'm going be real aggressive; my team is prepared; I feel really good about what we can do.
   "The last month hasn't gone well, but I think we can rebound."
   One question about this chase: will it become another home run derby, with drivers needing to win races, or will the title be determined by the team making the fewest mistakes....and does that mean running conservatively?
    Johnson's aggressive title runs the last few years have made rivals very wary of trying a conservative strategy....and then that's led to some of them just beating themselves.
   Burton's view: "I don't see a team having two or three bad finishes and winning the championship." And Burton points to Childress' reputation for bullet-proof equipment....if not typically blazingly fast: "One of the strengths historically is not having DNFs. That's a very important part of what RCR is about.
   "But that alone is not going to win a championship."
   On the other hand, Stewart thinks a conservative game plan is the best option: "You could go out and win four or five races, and have one bad day and lose the championship."
   While this 400 wasn't a great race to watch, not a thriller, still for many of these title contenders it was, as Stewart put it "a rough night."
   And Stewart is trying to be optimistic about the championship, which he's won twice: "We still have that momentum off of last week.  The arrow is still pointing up."
   And the bulls-eye is still squarely on Jimmie Johnson's rear bumper, as he goes for an unprecedented fifth straight title.
   And everyone is trying to size up Johnson's frame of mind. He typically has a ragged August...and he has rallied from a disastrous start to the chase, like crashing out at Loudon.
   Plus Johnson has won five times this season, and only Hamlin, with six, has more.
   Still, that aura of invincibility that Johnson has carried in the playoffs, through much of his career in fact, isn't there right now.
   And Johnson concedes as much: "It's a tough sport...when you're on the top you know how fragile it is."

     Richmond winner Denny Hamlin casts a ghostly image in the hoopla of victory lane (Photo: Getty Images for NASCAR)