So just what are the odds on Dale Earnhardt Jr. winning this Daytona 500....on the 10th anniversary?

  The next Daytona 500 winner? (Photo: Getty Images for NASCAR)
  

   By Mike Mulhern
   mikemulhern.net

  

   Waltrip edged Junior at the line...while The Big E, who had  been watching both from close behind in those final miles, was suddenly caught up in a fourth turn crash that took his life.
   In the 10 years since, Dale Jr. has become a star in his own right, the sport's most popular driver, if not the most successful. For several years Dale Jr. almost seemed to own Daytona.
  But Junior's last great season on the Cup tour was way back in 2004. And the past few years his career has slumped badly.
  The last two have been particularly painful.
  Car owner Rick Hendrick has vowed several times to make Earnhardt a winner again, and Hendrick has shuffled the deck several times. For this season Hendrick has given Earnhardt the Steve Letarte-led team that Jeff Gordon has raced with the past few years. And that puts Earnhardt right in the same Charlotte shop with five-time champion Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus.
  It's clear now that Earnhardt has no more excuses for not winning races. Everything that Jimmie Johnson gets, Earnhardt too can get, every bit of knowledge, every bit of wizardry.
  That's pressure.
  And Earnhardt, now 35, realizes this is his make-or-break season.
  Earnhardt one year ago took good advantage of NASCAR's new triple Green-White-Checkereds to nearly pull off victory in the 500.
  But Earnhardt here the past few years has been on-and-off. His lone Daytona 500 victory was seven years ago.
  However, this is the 10th anniversary....this sport is fighting through a two-year slump...and an Earnhardt victory would be a glorious one, certainly.
  Still, reading Dale Jr.'s face here Thursday, during the opening round of Daytona 500 testing for the Feb. 20th race, it would be hard to see that much optimism.
  So Letarte's biggest job right now might be to boost Earnhardt's confidence.
  Earnhardt concedes 2010 wasn't a great season:
  "I'm sure a lot of people expect nothing more than we did last year," Earnhardt said, looking ahead.  "And last year we were kind of under the radar...which was kind of fun -- A lot less garbage to deal with when you're not in the radar.
    "When you're running good, you can put up with about anything. But it's not fun being on the radar when you're running like crap.
    "Last year we sort of fell off the radar altogether.
   "I don't know what the reasons were for me and Lance (McGrew, then his crew chief) and that group not working out. I really enjoyed Lance. And I think we're still great friends. I think he has a lot of talent; but it just didn't work, for whatever reason."
    Now with Letarte? "I feel pretty confident about it, and I'm looking forward to the season.  We'll just see how it goes."
    If anything, Earnhardt at least says he doesn't plan to throw in the towel any time soon.
    "I want to be in racing for a very long time," he says. "And I know I can drive good enough to run well.
    "I'll stick around until I get it right.  It's just eventually going to have to happen."
   At the moment, though, Earnhardt is still trying to find his place in the new team structure: "Our team, it's a new deal, and I was joking with somebody in the truck earlier -- I was sitting up in the lounge, and they asked me if that was going to be my seat. I told them I'm not exactly sure where my seat is yet; it's sort of floating around. 
    "That's the way I feel about my team: everybody is still learning. I'm still learning who does what, what their personalities are.
    "It's been fun getting to know Steve more.  He's got a great personality, a lot of energy. Hopefully I can depend on that energy in certain times through certain races -- when you need somebody to gear you up, and let you see things a little differently. Maybe he can keep me on my toes, be a cheerleader...
    "They seem focused and ready to go."
     Bottom line for Earnhardt: "I'm really sick of how we've run the last several years, and ready to see something different. Ready to get to the track and see different results."
    And Earnhardt isn't alone in that.